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Canada's LNG Export Expansion: Misguided Emissions Credit Assumptions

Canada's LNG Export Expansion: Misguided Emissions Credit Assumptions

A growing chorus in Canada advocates for expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, suggesting that doing so would allow the country to earn credits under the Paris Agreement's Article 6.2, which pertains to internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). However, this perspective is fundamentally flawed. The proponents assume that Canadian LNG exports would lead to a measurable decrease in foreign coal production, a claim that cannot be substantiated. Moreover, they overlook the reality that foreign nations are unlikely to simply provide emissions reduction credits without a substantial exchange or benefit. Article 6.2 is designed for scenarios where wealthier countries assist developing nations in reducing emissions, not for exporting fossil fuels under the guise of environmental responsibility. If Canada were to pursue a coal-to-LNG switching project, it would likely incur significant costs while undermining its commitments to avoid fossil fuel subsidies abroad.

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